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Tactical Positioning Despite market volatility, we have not changed our tactical positioning during the past fortnight. Investors have been reminded in October of a simple fact: equity markets are volatile. We show below the various peak-to-trough drawdowns in the US market since 2010. The red shows a time when the US equity market fell, with […]
Tactical Positioning Despite short-term market turbulence we continue to take a broadly positive stance towards markets. Pull-backs are a healthy way for investors to gain perspective and assess risk and reward. The recent volatility reflects an adjustment by investors to a world that just might be tinged with higher inflation than experienced in the last […]
Tactical Positioning In recent days, we have implemented an increase in equity exposure for mandates that have been underweight their target exposure. As mentioned in our 31st August Bulletin, earnings and valuations seem reasonable and upward momentum is intact. Whilst ‘trade tantrums’ keep surfacing, compromise (as we have seen over NAFTA) may rule the day, […]
Tactical Positioning We have not made any tactical moves in the last two weeks, preferring to see how the trade tariff posturing takes shape. Our sense is that there is an element of ‘bark’ being worse than ‘bite’ in the political rhetoric. For example, we have seen that President Trump’s initial hostility over NAFTA (North […]
Tactical Positioning As we move towards the last quarter of the year, we are starting to focus on some of the more positive aspects underpinning markets. The first of these is the strong progress in U.S corporate earnings in 2018 where we expect growth to come in at 20% with a further 10% in 2019. […]
Tactical Positioning At the end of July, we wrote that we felt that the risk of a setback justified our modestly underweight position in equities. As we have seen in the last week, markets have been quick to retreat when the unexpected rears its head. Whilst, on the one hand, we have the complex situation […]
Tactical Positioning Company profit growth remains strong, as demonstrated by the current earnings season in the US, and this supports current equity valuations. That said, the recent fall in the share price of Facebook, as discussed below, highlights the risks if expectations are not met. We remain significantly invested in quoted equities but have kept our […]
Tactical Positioning Although President Trump continues to surprise with his recent statements on Europe, NATO and Russia, markets rose over the fortnight as participants focussed on the likelihood of a good company results season. We have not made any new tactical moves but we are reviewing our Emerging Market exposure as we would like to […]